Opinium's first look at the 2024 UK General Election results

A first look at why the UK voted the way it did

The 2024 general election results are in. As the dust settles, let’s review Labour's victory and what their priorities for this parliament should be.

Opinium conducted a large Day of Poll survey with ITN for Channel 4 amongst over 4,500 adults to understand why the UK voted the way it did.

A lot more will be released by our team over the coming weeks, including insights into the best political strategy for the Conservatives, the best policy and comms approach for Labour, and how businesses can use research to engage in advocacy with the new government.

Labour won because they might run things better; the Conservatives lost because they wrecked their brand

We asked voters to tell us why they voted the way they did. We found the Conservative’s tarnished brand is what removed them from office, and hope of improved public services put Labour in.

Two in five (40%) who turned up to the polls on Thursday voted for their chosen party’s plans for public services such as the NHS, while 32% voted for their party of choice’s economic, tax and spending policies. Labour’s vote was heavily driven by improved public services: 56% of Labour voters backed the party for that reason.

By comparison, the Conservatives were embattled on various fronts. Conservative voters turned out for their party’s tax and spend (50%) policies and their immigration policies (37%), but many voters with these policy priorities also backed Labour and Reform UK respectively, leaving the Conservatives struggling to dominate any one issue.

We also looked at why 2019 Conservatives abandoned the party this time around. Former Conservative voters named the party’s leadership (45%) and the party’s reputation as a whole (42%) as the key reasons for voting against the party.

What about Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party put the voters off?

Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party's key problem is that they were seen as being out of touch with no compensating strengths. During the campaign, as we have done throughout the course of this parliament, we asked voters for their perception of the Conservative leader and of his party. During the campaign, the Conservatives did terribly on three scores relating to being out of touch.

To some extent, the Conservative party and its leader will tend to do less well on these indicators anyway, but these are particularly poor scores.

To add insult to injury, the Conservative Party has terrible scores on being united (only 15% agreed, 63% disagree) and being competent (21% agree, 57% disagree). These are areas where the Conservative Party scored very strongly up until 2022.

While the Conservatives were making arguments on tax and immigration, these results show voters turned their backs on an out-of-touch prime minister leading a party that was also perceived as disunited and incompetent.

Where do we go from here? NHS and living standards top of the agenda

With a Labour majority looking likely for some time, we took eight policies or initiatives from the Labour manifesto and asked voters on election day, if a Labour government were to come in, what would they like to see it prioritise for the next five years and how achievable did those priorities seem.

The public’s top two priorities were cutting NHS waiting times by offering many more appointments to the public (66%) and improving living standards by investing and increasing economic growth (47%).

Voters thought Labour’s core economic pledge was more achievable than its health offering. 52% think raising living standards is achievable in this parliament (while 29% think it is not). By comparison, voters are more divided on the achievability of cutting NHS waiting times (44% achievable, 40% unachievable).

To complicate matters, the public’s third priority for the next five years was ensuring there is no rise in income tax, national insurance, or VAT (38%). Once again, the public are divided on how achievable this is (43% think it is achievable, 38% think it is not).

When looking at the bigger picture, however, things bode relatively well for the early days of the Labour government. Voters tend to think their top priorities are some of the new government’s more achievable aims, although this could always pose problems down the line if they fail to deliver on these.

A thornier problem for Keir Starmer’s government could be dealing with the small boats crisis. A third (34%) of the public say this is their priority, and 45% say it is unachievable for Labour over the next five years (versus 35% achievable).