Opinium’s final poll of the 2024 UK general election campaign

Labour go into the final day of the campaign with a 20-point lead

“Opinium’s final poll of the 2024 UK election campaign, conducted up to lunchtime on Wednesday 3rd July amongst over 3,000 UK adults, confirms what some might say we’ve known for a while: we seem to be on course for a Labour landslide and the beginning of Keir Starmer’s premiership.

Labour has a lead of 20 points over the Conservatives, with Labour on 41% of the vote and the Conservatives on only 21%. Reform UK remains in third place, with a hefty vote share of 17%, marking a new high for the performance of a Farage-led party at a general election.

While Opinium’s final poll shows that Labour probably has an insurmountable lead in the polls, for the first time we are saying even at this stage there is scope for the Labour lead to narrow. Almost one in ten (8%) of 2019 Conservatives still say they don’t know how they will vote in the general election tomorrow, twice the number of 2019 Labour voters (4%). If they did return to the Conservatives at the very last moment, there could still be a narrowing of a couple of points, although this would still leave Labour with an unprecedentedly large lead in vote share.”

James Crouch
Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research

What the poll says: Labour has a 20-point lead heading into the final day of the campaign

Labour is on 41%, giving them a lead of 20 points in our final poll before the general election. This is a similar share of the vote to what Tony Blair received in the 2001 general election when he won his second landslide.

The Conservatives remain in the low twenties where they have been for most of the second half of the campaign. Our final poll puts them on 21%. This would be a historic low for the Conservative Party in British elections.

It would also be a historic low for either of the two major parties. It would be significantly worse vote share than Michael Foot’s Labour achieved in 1983 (when they took around 28% of the vote).

The Liberal Democrats are on 11%, essentially the same as they were in 2019 but they could perform well in their target seats against the Conservatives.

Reform UK remains the biggest wildcard. They are on 17%, which is significantly above than the high watermark of 13% Nigel Farage achieved with UKIP in the 2015 general election. What that means for their likely tally of seats remains completely unknown.

How the final few days have gone: Reform has first seriously bad week of the campaign in the final days

In the final few days of the campaign, it appears that Reform has had its first really bad stretch, with half (49%) saying the party has had a bad week. This could prove significant as voters go to the polls tomorrow.

However, this will only benefit the Conservatives to a limited extent, as they too are having a bad final few days of the campaign. Over half (56%) say they had a bad week. This is only slightly below their negative scores since Sunak left the D-Day commemorations early (when 65% said they had a bad week).

Labour has had another good week in the final few days, with 43% believing the party has had a good week.