Another week, another Tory punch up on Rwanda
Polling suggests the government might have been getting its point across on Rwanda, but the latest divisions will do nothing to help says researcher Calum Weir
To some, the government’s Rwanda scheme is an important stepping stone in a path back to a Conservative victory. To others, it’s a great exercise in ballistic podiatry. Either way, the failure of the government to implement the scheme in practice has stalled their wider policy agenda on immigration and brought a lot of the disunity in the party out into the open.
As usual, we return to the polling basics. Is the Rwanda scheme popular? Kind of. But the policy has ended up augmenting that initial approval in some unexpected ways.
As mentioned, the Rwanda scheme is narrowly popular as a proposal. When it was announced, in November 2022, there was an equal split in support and opposition. 35% supported, 35% opposed. That support has actually risen over time, as the latest polling shows 38% support and 31% oppose. Belief in the Rwanda scheme’s effectiveness – if it were to be implemented – to deter small boats has seen an even sharper rise. When it was announced, only a fifth (20%) thought the Rwanda policy would deter people from arriving in small boats, whereas 60% thought that it would not be effective. Now, 35% (+15% from Nov 2022) think it would be effective and 45% (-15% from Nov 2022) think that it would not.
Clearly, there is some scope to say the government is having limited success in arguing its point on the policy. Conservative messaging on immigration and deterrence, or perhaps the totemic status the policy is assuming on the right, may be cutting through.
However, until something more substantial than talk on this happens, the arguments serves to underline the fissures in and failures of the Conservative Party on this issue. When we asked whether reducing illegal immigration to the UK was achievable for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives before the next General Election, a majority (53%) thought it was unachievable. This includes a majority of 2019 Conservatives (51%) who are much more likely than average to support the Rwanda scheme in principle (62% support as opposed to 38% on average). This is where the Conservatives’ working strategy of growing support for the Rwanda scheme in principle may be sinking them, as voters get frustrated with the inability for the government to actually get it done.
This has tangling effects for the Conservatives. In October, our polling showed the public clearly identified the party as divided. A hardy majority (59%) disagreed that the Conservatives are ‘united’ and only 18% agree. If a house divided cannot stand, keeping the divides going through parliamentary charades over Rwanda is bound to make the house crumble quickly. This should especially worry Conservatives as, in October, 41% agreed that the Labour party was united and only 30% disagreed. It appears the latest warnings of Isaac Levido have fallen on deaf ears.
If achieved, there is some scope for the Government to play on Rwanda. It would defy expectations and would be appealing to a base that this government desperately hoping to shore up. The issue is that, left hanging, the Conservatives risk confirming the pessimism their former already have in spades.
As seen originally in Opinium-Lansons Political Capital.