Allies and threats to the UK according to the British public

How public opinion aligns with actual foreign policy, with analysis from Calum Weir

Our special relationship with the US, our Commonwealth bonds with Australia, and our European partnership with France are all well-established elements of Britain’s foreign policy. But what does the British public think? While the FCDO’s official policy generally aligns with public opinion, there are complexities in attitudes towards other countries that vary across generational and political divides.

First, let’s look at our allies. The US (64%), Australia (69%), and France (57%) are generally considered allies by the public. This perception improves with age: older Brits (65+) are notably more likely to see these countries as allies, while younger groups (18-34) are more ambivalent, especially towards the US and Australia. The difference is most striking with Australia: 82% of those aged 65+ see Australia as an ally, compared to just 55% of 18-34-year-olds who are just more likely to answer “don’t know” to most countries.

Turning to rivals, we see a similar pattern in reverse. Russia (77%), Iran (67%), and China (62%) are widely considered threats. However, younger Britons are more open to the possibility of seeing Russia (10%) and China (14%) as allies compared to older age groups. For instance, only 42% of 18-34-year-olds consider China an outright threat, compared to 77% of those aged 65+.

There is, however, some political consensus—particularly regarding Russia, which is overwhelmingly viewed as a threat by 77% of the public, with only 4% seeing it as an ally. This consensus extends across voter groups: Conservative (85%), Labour (82%), Lib Dem (81%), Reform UK (83%), and Green voters (80%) all align in seeing Russia as a threat.

In many cases, this trend continues, even with countries you might expect to divide opinion, such as the United States. Over seven in ten voters across most political groups view the US as an ally: Conservative (75%), Labour (71%), and Reform UK (72%). The Green Party is the closest to an outlier, with 53% seeing the US as an ally, but it’s worth noting that a majority still align with the broader consensus.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the thorniest issue is the UK's relationship with Israel. Overall, 35% of UK adults view Israel as a threat, while 24% see it as an ally. However, opinions on Israel vary significantly. There is a clear gender divide: 32% of men see Israel as an ally, compared to just 17% of women, while 40% of women view Israel as a threat, compared to 30% of men. Regional differences are also notable: in Scotland, 45% perceive Israel as a threat, and only 20% as an ally, while in London, the split is 32% vs 29% respectively.

These findings remind us that while many assumptions about UK foreign policy align with public opinion, the relationship is not always straightforward. Some allies and threats face ambivalence from younger generations, and conflicting views on a country like Israel offer little clear guidance to policymakers without deeper insight into what drives public opinion.