A final look at the polls in 2023
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs, reflects on how public opinion has shifted over the last 12 months.
As we reach the end of 2023, it is worth reflecting that this is the first time we have made it into the fifth year of a Parliament since 2014. Back when all of us in the world of polling and public affairs felt a lot younger. Ahead of a general election year, let’s look back at how public opinion shifted over the last 12 months (spoiler: they did a little bit, but not much).
Labour retains double-digit leads: Labour started the year comfortably ahead, by 16 points, and ended still quite comfortably ahead by 13 points. The two major parties both lost vote share to smaller parties: 7% of the vote collectively. Labour more to the Greens and Lib Dems, Tories more to Reform. However, the one in six 2019 Conservative voters that shifted to Labour under Truss has remained pretty solidly in the Labour column.
RON?: The best prime minister has been ‘None of the above’ for quite a considerable time now, according to Opinium’s regular tracker. At the start of 2023, 29% thought Keir Starmer would make the best PM, narrowly ahead of ‘None of the above’ (28%) and Rishi Sunak (26%). By the time we get to our final poll not only has the gap widened between Starmer and Sunak (now 29% vs 23%) but ‘None of the above’ has seen an 8-point boost to 36%. A vote to RON (re-open nominations) may be looking increasingly appealing.
Neither leader hitting the mark: This appears to be driven by the increasing levels of disapproval both leaders have received from the public. Both have seen a double-digit drop in their net approval ratings since the start of the year, although Rishi Sunak suffers due to him starting from a much lower base. While Keir Starmer has gone from a net approval of +3 to -9%, the Prime Minister has gone from a net approval of -14% to -29%.
On the Prime Minister’s part, voters have lost trust in his ability to do the job well according to our leader attributes tracker. Rishi Sunak is seen as far less competent, less able to take decisions, and weaker at the end of the year than the beginning. But above all he is increasingly seen as dislikeable. If we turn to the Labour leader, we find Keir Starmer is getting lower scores on trustworthiness and sticking to his principles, suggesting some of his leadership decisions on key issues have not always endeared him to voters.
Things look a little bit closer to pre-Brexit politics: The top two issues throughout the year have been the NHS and the Economy. Which makes a nice break from the days of politics dominated by the EU and Brexit followed by Covid. The NHS remains a massive sore point for the government; half (50%) want waiting lists tackled by the government before the general election, but 55% think it will be unachievable for them to do much about.
By comparison, the economic picture is a bit more nuanced for the parties. The Truss mini-Budget destroyed the Conservatives’ economic credibility, and there is no sign that it is coming back. However, Labour has not yet been able to fully exploit the government’s continued weakness; the proportion of voters that believe Labour would be best for their own finances dropped 7 points over the year from 35% to only 28%. The economic challenges facing the UK are also the ones the public believe are most achievable for the government to turn around by next year.
Immigration is back: Immigration is back as a top three issue (rising by 9 points from 24% to 33% saying it is now one of the most important issues), with the issue of energy and power dropping in importance. A combination of government comms and the increasing numbers of both legal and illegal migration have contributed to this – although which side of the fence you sit on probably will determine which you think has contributed most. While the public still believes the Tories are roughly where they are on this issue (that immigration is too high), 49% believe that the government does not have a plan to actually achieve a reduction in immigration.
Fail to plan, and plan to fail: Lastly, housing has crept up the list of most important issues, from 14% to 21% selecting it as one of three most important issues facing the UK. It’s also one of the third most important issues for those currently intending to vote Labour at the next election. Our conference polling shows that Keir Starmer has successfully positioned Labour as the party of housebuilding, but how the latest offering from Michael Gove on planning goes down with voters will be one to look out for in the New Year.