What the Conservative Party needs is... Martin Lewis?
Calum Weir explores whether a new leader could turn Conservative fortunes around, or whether public opinion on the Tories is settled regardless.
When Rishi walked into the 1922 committee last week, the committee room must have felt as cold and lofty as it looked. While all his MPs banged on their desks, for minutes at a time, he must have known that the daggers were out. Last week a whole host of frontbenchers looked to be in the running: Penny Mordaunt; Kemi Badenoch; even Robert Jenrick. Some started to wonder if Rehman Chishti was going to make his long-awaited return, or whether Theresa May’s pair of hands might be safest.
The interest in doing leadership comparison questions in these situations is overwhelming. We all pore over the headline findings when the results come in. However, these results should come with a giant “handle with care” label as it can be all too easy to read into two points here or three points there.
Beware the three key pitfalls: overall figures are to be taken with a pinch of salt; it’s best to benchmark against a non-political figure in the public eye; and party context is key.
Last week we asked whether a Conservative government led by various party figures would be preferable to a Labour government led by Keir Starmer. If you looked at the headline figures, you would be forgiven for reading a lot into what are some very interesting figures. It suggests Sunak is being pipped by Penny Mordaunt in terms of popularity and that a leadership change to Braverman, Badenoch or Cleverley would leave Conservatives in an even worse place than they are now.
However, this is far from the full story. When we ask UK adults we are asking a wide variety of people from the political spectrum, including those who have absolutely no intention of voting Conservative no matter who the leader. Frankly, their views are not that important when it comes to decision-making around changing the Conservative future in the short term.
So, who should we focus on then? Well, the best and most easily identifiable group to hone in on is those who have a proven track record of giving the Conservatives a hefty electoral victory in the recent past. So the fact that the 2019 Conservative voters’ swing is in line with the overall percentage is a more important story than what the general public think: that Penny Mordaunt is performing very, very marginally better than the incumbent Prime Minister and that other switches in the Conservative frontbench would not necessarily turn around Conservative fortunes.
With 2019 Conservatives in mind, we have tried to illustrate another factor that these kinds of polls also tend to miss: a benchmark in the public eye. When we look at this, we find that celebrities actually see a greater fluctuation in support amongst 2019 Conservatives.
Martin Lewis, popular as a money-saving guru during a Cost of Living crisis, performs better than Rishi Sunak by 4%. In contrast, Claudia Winkleman, who is popular but not necessarily for her politics, would be the worst-performing hypothetical Tory leader. Richard Osman sits somewhere in the middle.
The fact that there is more of a swing around celebrities, who are less directly involved, goes to show that a lot of the issue is with Brand Conservative rather than who is heading it up.
In this vein, it is very easy to talk about other Conservative leaders in a vacuum. A party and its leader are inextricably, inevitably bound. The below chart illustrates party leader attributes, such as “is competent” or “has the nation’s best interests at heart.” It also shows party attributes themselves, many of which are the exact same (like “is competent” or “has the nation’s best interests at heart”).
What we see are clusters. We see that parties and their leaders are locked in a bind together, showing that party and party leader are very similar in terms of public opinion. Where this poses an issue for alternative leadership polls is somewhat in timing, as there may not be enough time for a new Conservative leader to move the parties’ popularity closer to its new leader’s popularity. And even if there was enough time, it’s a gamble – one that Sunak made, initially starting off more popular than his party, before being trapped in its branches.
Alternative leadership polls are undeniably captivating. On the surface, they are the best way of determining whether it is worth rolling the dice. But any plotters should give all of the findings due care, context and consideration.
As seen originally in the Lansons-Opinium Political Capital.