Week 5: Opinium's GE2024 Campaign Roundup
The Conservatives fall to a new low of 20% of the vote as Reform UK has its best week of the campaign so far
“It’s been another extraordinary week of polling for the 2024 UK general election. The Conservative Party hits a historic low of only 20% in the polls, barely 4 points ahead of Reform UK, and all before the latest major scandal of the campaign really broke.
It seems remarkable to say that we are talking about a terrible week in the polls for the Conservatives which hasn’t even taken account of the latest wave of bad news to hit Rishi Sunak: a major betting scandal prompting the Gambling Commission to investigate top Tories.
However, with our polling showing the Conservatives have had two terrible weeks in a row already, there is a question mark over what impact the betting scandal will have on Tory polling numbers. Are they already at rock bottom, or can they go even lower when so much that has already gone wrong is baked into their numbers?
Nigel Farage has had some of the first major pushback of the campaign over his comments on Vladimir Putin and Ukraine. As this also happened after the majority of our fieldwork was conducted, it will be interesting to see what impact it has had, if any, in the following days. But up until that point, it’s clear Reform UK has had the best week of the campaign so far, hitting 16% of the vote.
In all the twists and turns, let’s not ignore the largest party on the left of centre. Labour will be breathing a sigh of relief that their declining support over the course of the campaign has stabilised. Labour’s vote share surged after the unpopular National Service policy was announced by the Conservatives in the first full week of the campaign, hitting 45%. Since then it has dropped to 40%. Anything lower than that and Keir Starmer’s team might be concerned at how easily the party’s vote is fragmenting during a campaign that has gone reasonably well for them.”
James Crouch
Head of Policy & Public Affairs
Labour takes 20-point lead as divide on the right continues
Labour’s decline over the campaign has plateaued, with the party retaining a healthy 40% of the vote. It is still worthwhile reflecting that Labour’s share of the vote is only just slightly under where they were polling for most of March and April.
By comparison, the Conservatives’ decline from a lower position has been far more eye-catching. Before the election was called the party was on only a quarter of the vote, which in and of itself would have been a historic low. Now the party has fallen to 20% - barely one in five voters backing the party.
While the convergence with Reform has not happened – yet – another party on the right taking 16% of the vote is hugely damaging to the Conservative Party. Our last poll shows that amongst Leave voters Reform and the Conservatives are now level pegging on 29%. The split on the right is the main reason why Labour, still only receiving 25% support from Leave voters, is still close to catching up with the Conservatives who took the UK out of the European Union less than 5 years ago.
Little joy for the Conservatives on a campaign that seemingly can only get worse
Our fieldwork period carried on up until Friday morning. Hence the vast majority of fieldwork took place before the Conservative betting scandal hit the headlines, and before Nigel Farage’s comments on Ukraine and Putin had really become widely known.
For that reason, it seems unlikely that the Conservatives’ position would have improved much from what we recorded between Wednesday and Friday last week: 59% think the party had a bad week, only slightly down on the 65% that said the same after the prime minister left the D-Day commemorations early.
By comparison, Labour has had its ‘best week’ of the campaign for a second week in a row, with 43% believing the party had a good week.
The impact of some of the smaller parties on the campaign declined last week, with the proportion not knowing how the Lib Dem and Greens campaigns were going rising to 57% and 65% respectively. The exception was Reform, who had their best week yet on the campaign trail with a third (34%) believing they had a good week. Whether this changes as fire turns on Nigel Farage in the final full week of the campaign remains to be seen.