Labour Conference 2024: Keir in present danger
James Crouch explores why the PM and his chancellor are facing a public backlash, and not just on freebies
Is Keir Starmer as bad as Rishi Sunak? That’s essentially the question we posed in our polling this week for The Observer. Publishing on the eve of Labour conference, we found that voters were most likely to say ‘if he goes on like this, yes’.
To paint a picture of the scale of the problem: for the first time since October 2022, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are lower than Rishi Sunak’s (net -26 versus net -25). His chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is in the same boat with an approval rating of net -25. Almost half of voters have a more negative perception of the prime minister and Labour since they came to office, and more think they are worse than the last government (34% worse vs 30% better).
It's a litany of bad polling headlines that Keir Starmer could do without. But the more important questions are why, and what does this mean for what Labour does next.
Poor communications around a worsening economic picture
The economic picture and this government’s handling of it is essential to understanding the position Labour is now in. After the election in July, Labour had a 10-point lead on best to handle the economy, which it has now almost entirely lost. Currently, only 28% trust Labour most on the economy (-6 since July), while 27% trust the Conservatives most, and 30% trust neither.
The challenges they face include a darkening economic picture in terms of consumer confidence. Our tracker, which measures how the public feels about their finances, shows the proportion who are “struggling” financially is up 6 points since May (from 19% to 25%), while the proportion who are “comfortable” is down 6 points (from 33% to 27%).
The new government appears to be too closely connected to the darkening consumer and economic headwinds impacting the public. More pointedly, the government’s own communications have placed them in that position. Keir Starmer’s speech describing the budget as “painful” sent a strong, clear warning signal to voters—perhaps one that was too clear. Over half (52%) of voters now think the government is doing a bad job of providing hope and optimism for the future.
Does Rachel Reeves have the wrong priorities?
The biggest misstep in strategic communications seems to come collectively from No 10 and No 11 Downing Street. The government spent the summer teeing up the budget, but the way they did has struck the wrong note, hence why Rachel Reeves’ numbers are also at similar depths to the prime minister’s.
First, the overall argument centring on a fiscal “black hole” requiring stringent measures on spending and tax—essentially a strategy lifted from the George Osborne playbook. The problem is, this is not what people want nor what they elected a Labour government to do.
When we asked what the government’s priority should be, by three-to-one the public said the chancellor should focus on economic growth over improving the state of public finances (59% vs 18%). Yet voters think Rachel Reeves is doing precisely the opposite: 44% believe she’s focusing on fiscal issues, while only 26% think she’s focused on driving economic growth.
As we covered in our polling last month, even if this was what voters wanted, the government has not set it up very well. With the only major loser thus far being pensioners, due to the means testing of the winter fuel payment, the perception is that this budget won’t just be painful, it will be unfairly so, which was surely never the government’s intention.
Do the ‘scandals’ matter?
Another major challenge is the recent stories about donations and so-called freebies. To some extent, these headlines are often more hype than substance, but they are not insignificant. ‘Frockgate’ and related stories are the second-largest UK political story this week, according to voters, coming just behind the genuine political headache of the winter fuel payments saga, which continues to rumble on week after week.
The damage from this story has both short-term and long-term implications. Labour is still a long way from being seen as cronyism-infested as the last Conservative government, according to our polling, but the immediate story feeds into the general disappointment with Labour’s early months in office: 52% think they’re doing a bad job of rebuilding trust in politics.
The long-term damage comes from the combination of this story with the mishandling of the winter fuel payments communication. In just four months, the government has seen a 29-point drop in perceptions of being “in touch” (from net +14 to net -14). This used to be Labour’s biggest strength leading up to the general election, but now 45% think the party is out of touch, and only 30% believe they are in touch.
Labour needs to use this week to recalibrate its pitch to the electorate. To argue that Labour is doing what it needs to do for the economy, not for the government’s own finances. To argue that its priority is fairness, not to revel in the pain. To argue that is in touch with the growing concerns of voters. But the window for them to do so convincingly is narrowing.
Seethe full data tables here.